Donald Trump announced his candidacy for president by railing against the criminals coming in from Mexico, promised to build $14+ billion wall on the southern border, proposed banning immigration from Muslim countries, and has signed two executive orders (both of which have been stalled by the courts) to halt immigration from several Muslim majority countries. I will skate past all the political arguments and make the hopefully uncontroversial claim that he is not for open borders.
Since the election, there have been a slew of news stories about immigration raids and stories about a general climate of fear in immigrant communities. I remain a little skeptical of there being a trend. The stories so far are isolated and/or anecdotal; I’ve yet to see a (reputable) news source with a headline proclaiming that immigration raids are skyrocketing. Plus, we have yet to see our country run on a Trump administration budget–I am unaware of any sudden windfall of funding for ICE to pay overtime for increased work loads.* Here are some ways immigration enforcement, and our perception of it, may change under President Trump (and may already be changing):
President Trump’s administration may increase immigration raids
This possibility would be in keeping with President Trump’s rhetoric; I’m just cautioning against expecting that or jumping to conclusions about what is happening. Trump’s budget does propose increased funding for Homeland Security, which could allow for expanded operations in the future. But let’s not forget that his goals are not that unlike Obama’s, at least on paper: Get rid of “the bad ones.” And rhetoric doesn’t always predict numbers, either: for example, in keeping with ongoing trends, deportations increased under President Obama.
If we do see a change here, my guess is it’s likely to happen in larger cities. They’re the low-hanging fruit; federal agents are already stationed there. So if you live just outside Midweston, Ohituckyana, don’t expect convoys of black SUVs to be screaming down Main Street.
I just want to temper the acknowledgment of this possibility with a caution that you need to be careful about assuming it’s happening. That’s because…
Renewed attention on immigration may create a false impression of increased enforcement
In the weeks after President Trump was sworn in, I started to see some less than rigorous reporting in my Facebook feed. One person posted a picture of a Department of Homeland Security vehicle, with a caption that they had never before seen one on the road. Implied: The Trump police state has begun. A closer look revealed the words “Federal Protective Service.” As in, basically, courthouse security. And I’m sure this isn’t the first time that person saw a vehicle like this; it’s just that without the context of present narrative, it wasn’t striking to them. Other examples abound; my fellow liberals see martial law under every rock. (Liberal readers, compare this to how you felt the last time you heard someone warning of Sharia law.)
More subtly than such wild leaps to conclusions, you will see more news stories about immigration raids even if immigration raids don’t increase. That’s because the news is largely a reflection of what people are attentive to–they serve up what we want to hear more about. This will, in turn, create the impression that something is changing.
ICE supervisors may be emboldened by Trump’s election
I doubt President Trump has had the time to develop a comprehensive immigration enforcement strategy and see it implemented on the ground. But employees are always attentive to what’s going on at the top; perhaps we’ve seen ICE pick up some targets they have been watching, or plan more ambitious operations, because they know they now have an ultimate boss who is more interested in these activities. Or, similarly, perhaps they view the election as evidence that public sentiment is on their side. Like a reverse Ferguson Effect.
Some local law enforcement agencies will partner with federal immigration enforcement efforts
President Trump pretty immediately moved to ramp up the “287(g)” program, which allows the Department of Homeland Security to partner with local law enforcement agencies in the enforcement of immigration laws. This allows the officers in those agencies to receive specialized training in immigration enforcement and deputizes them to enforce these federal laws. Here’s an article in The Atlantic talking about these efforts, though I think it somewhat overstates what the program does.
The key is that these are voluntary partnerships, not a federal mandate for local agencies (which would be highly unusual). They were suspended under President Obama and are being resumed under President Trump, but that does not mean that police everywhere will be enforcing immigration laws.
Some agencies–like Milwaukee County–will predictably be interested in this, and those areas could very well see some big changes. But many–I’d be willing to bet most, and possibly even the vast majority of–law enforcement agencies are going to be uninterested in this program, for a couple of reasons:
- My understanding is that officers who participate in this program basically become dedicated immigration enforcement officers. That means a reduction in personpower (what’s the nongendered term for this?) for all other operations. Highly specialized officers may be palatable in major cities, which tend to be more liberal, and have larger and more visible immigrant communities, and which are thus less likely to show interest in this program. Where that’s not really a thing is in smaller agencies, which are most of them.
- Immigrants, including unauthorized immigrants, are part of the clientele that a local law enforcement agency serves. They are crime victims, suspects, witnesses, sources of information, and generally members of the public. We need them to call 911. We need them to answer the door when we have an interview to conduct. We need them to show up to testify in court. If we’re targeting them for arrest, we’re shooting ourselves in the foot.
In fact, my guess is that the very places that have large, visible immigrant communities are the places were law enforcement is going to be least likely to have any interest in this program. I do not discount that some–many–people will be affected. However as far as there being in change in your experience, this is another place where you shouldn’t make wild predictions.
But finally…
Immigrant communities will be in fear
Stories of immigration raids are going to cause fear: both in unauthorized immigrants who worry they may be targeted, and people who are legally in the country who worry others may think they’re not. There is an inherent vulnerability to being an unauthorized immigrant: you might be a phone call away from losing your house, your car, even your family.
That fear will include fear of the local police. Not everyone will enjoy the safety of the nuances I’ve discussed above. Many who do won’t know or appreciate those nuances. Some of what we fear in point 2 in that last section is already the reality; more will come to pass. And we must be aware that fear is what causes law enforcement contacts to escalate; fear will cause people to run or fight, and it makes us all less safe.
So how will immigration enforcement change under President Trump? Some, but maybe less than you think. Our perception is likely to outpace the actual changes, thanks to media attention and the general climate. And some of those perceptions do us no good. So I suppose this post is to say: Calm down. Refocus. Figure out what’s real. And work from there.
*For the wonks: ICE agents are actually covered by LEAP, or Law Enforcement Availability Pay. They get a big bonus over their base pay and in exchange are exempted from overtime regulations. However, their hours are generally monitored so that, on average, over time, they will not be excessive. Thus the amount of available work is finite and, without budget increases, it’s not really feasible for them to do a whole lot more operations.